Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 29.101883 32.366903 36.102764 40.755198 46.484685 53.438495 62.730419
2025-06-08 24.097012 28.141227 33.184580 40.146600 49.889557 63.735422 86.491110
2025-06-15 20.937281 25.285944 31.050679 39.655721 53.037476 75.020974 120.121503
2025-06-22 18.798209 23.282117 29.512182 39.419765 56.303813 88.173505 172.202622
2025-06-29 17.034854 21.482593 27.878032 38.549824 58.125949 99.884122 243.327287
2025-07-06 16.314172 21.020613 28.075033 40.581369 65.894259 130.620494 501.875360
2025-07-13 15.215005 19.856696 26.990965 40.127705 68.507033 151.466333 976.013169
2025-07-20 14.428416 19.068869 26.381995 40.381423 72.814724 183.936942 3740.413415
2025-07-27 13.773570 18.411685 25.890146 40.737304 77.583895 228.001682 NaN
2025-08-03 13.129752 17.709656 25.230303 40.612598 81.096936 276.703524 NaN
2025-08-10 12.506001 16.987331 24.452695 40.091397 83.314716 327.712777 NaN
2025-08-17 12.040245 16.484205 24.008652 40.210985 87.687320 420.067041 NaN
2025-08-24 11.552824 15.919302 23.412282 39.923757 90.832904 533.307561 NaN
2025-08-31 11.085437 15.358108 22.773408 39.439854 93.193978 677.228290 NaN
2025-09-07 10.666071 14.851677 22.193066 39.005588 95.672496 892.866801 NaN
2025-09-14 10.308132 14.427727 21.732685 38.793406 99.100535 1296.544458 NaN
2025-09-21 9.911605 13.915621 21.062255 37.952925 99.454212 1692.158055 NaN
2025-09-28 9.836045 13.951500 21.459222 39.935192 114.691093 12090.008499 NaN
2025-10-05 9.527764 13.562258 20.978668 39.494599 117.431077 374037.364964 NaN
2025-10-12 9.304810 13.311923 20.758800 39.742277 124.516873 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.104970 13.091898 20.582938 40.089125 132.857344 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.878217 12.812274 20.262795 39.967760 138.280592 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.634049 12.490427 19.833083 39.460102 140.733866 NaN NaN